CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
2-9 | Road
1
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
5-6 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Miguel Vargas
#20 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Joey Cantillo | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 2.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.23
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
21%
GUARDIANS
79%
WHITE SOX
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CHW By 1-2 runs
14.4%
CHW By 3-4 runs
8.6%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
2.57
CHICAGO
Cleveland
4.28
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
79% Win Prob
B
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
CHW @ CLE
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Cleveland
CLE
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.826
▲
OPS
.696
1
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16100.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+92.0% more
Cleveland: 1.1
vs
Chicago: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+80.0% more
Cleveland: 1.0
vs
Chicago: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.7% more
Cleveland: 9.2
vs
Chicago: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
2.6
1
CLE Score
4.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
4.4 / 5.9
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 7.7
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
7.6 / 7.3
17.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.5 / 5.7
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CHW
CLE
CHW
ML
54%
87-74
49%
81-86
49%
80-82
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
99-68
59%
95-67
56%
93-74
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
96-69-2
43%
69-90-2
51%
84-81-2
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