BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
7-7 | Road
1
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
2-10 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ceddanne Rafaela
#3 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Davis Martin
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Davis Martin | None-None | 4.24 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.24
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
83%
WHITE SOX
17%
RED SOX
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
12.4%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.0%
CHW By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.75
BOSTON
Chicago
4.16
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Win
17% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
CHW @ BOS
11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026
CHW @ BOS
0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
CHW @ BOS
2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026
BOS @ CHW
2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026
BOS @ CHW
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Chicago
CHW
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.409
OPS
▲
.826
2
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+500.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+43.8% more
Chicago: 4.8
vs
Boston: 3.4
OPS (Season)
+41.7%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+25.6%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.8
1
CHW Score
4.2
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 1.3
1.0 / 5.0
Hits
5.6 / 7.3
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 8.1
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
6.9 / 9.3
16.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.4
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
BOS
CHW
BOS
ML
49%
81-86
50%
80-80
56%
94-73
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
99-68
58%
93-67
56%
93-74
48%
79-84
TTL
58%
96-69-2
46%
72-83-5
51%
84-81-2
47%
74-83-6
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