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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

7-8  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Apr 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

3-10  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Chase Meidroth
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Meidroth

#10 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.50 -- 0.1 1
Chase Meidroth None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.50 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
74%
📊
WHITE SOX
26%
RED SOX --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Chicago)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

38.9%

White Sox Cover

61.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.0%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.2%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.43
BOSTON
4.56
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Win
26% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim White Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 CHW @ BOS 11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026 CHW @ BOS 0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 CHW @ BOS 2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026 BOS @ CHW 2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026 BOS @ CHW 5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Chicago CHW
2 ▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.409
OPS
▲ .826
2 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +500.0% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +41.7%
Chicago: 82.6% vs Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +25.6%
Chicago: 41.5% vs Boston: 15.9%
Batting Avg (Season) +20.7%
Chicago: 32.4% vs Boston: 11.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.4 2
CHW Score 4.6 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 2.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 7.2 4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.1 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.4 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 9.5 7.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.6 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
BOS
CHW
BOS
ML
49% 81-86
50% 80-80
56% 94-73
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 99-68
58% 93-67
56% 93-74
48% 79-84
TTL
58% 96-69-2
46% 72-83-5
51% 84-81-2
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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