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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

7-8  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 1:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

8-6  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Joey Cantillo
STARTING PITCHER

Joey Cantillo

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 0.00 -- 0.1 1
Joey Cantillo None-None 0.96 -- 2.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 0.96
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
40%
📊
GUARDIANS
60%
ROYALS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Cleveland)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

30.0%

Guardians Cover

70.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

KC By 1-2 runs

13.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CLE By 3-4 runs

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.69
KANSAS CITY
4.79
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
C
Sim Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.718 ▲
OPS
.696
170 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +73.0% more
Cleveland: 1.1 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +65.6% more
Cleveland: 12.7 vs Kansas City: 7.7
Strikeouts (L5) +44.1% more
Cleveland: 11.1 vs Kansas City: 7.7
Hits (L5) +42.0% more
Cleveland: 8.2 vs Kansas City: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 2.7 4
CLE Score 4.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 5.8 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.1 / 7.7 9.0 / 14.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 7.7 6.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.6 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
54% 87-74
55% 89-72
49% 80-82
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
TTL
55% 88-71-2
58% 90-64-7
43% 69-90-2
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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