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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

8-9  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Apr 14 • 7:05 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

7-8  |  Home

16
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Taylor Walls
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Walls

#6 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 2.45 -- 1.0 2
Taylor Walls None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.45 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
📊
RAYS
50%
RED SOX --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Tampa Bay)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

38.8%

Rays Cover

61.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

BOS By 1-2 runs

15.9%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.2%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.09
BOSTON
4.23
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 BOS @ TB 4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026 TB @ BOS 1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 TB @ BOS 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +354.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +122.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.6 vs Boston: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +45.8% more
Tampa Bay: 15.4 vs Boston: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.1 1
TB Score 4.2 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 7.7 16.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.4 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 10.4 14.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 10.6 30.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.6 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
58% 95-68
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-66
58% 93-67
55% 90-73
48% 79-84
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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