ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
4-11 | Road
8
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
9-7 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Lukes
#38 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Holmes | None-None | 3.78 | -- | 7.2 | 4 |
| Nathan Lukes | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.78
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
7.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
4
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
22%
BLUE JAYS
78%
BRAVES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.9%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.24
ATLANTA
Toronto
3.57
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
78% Win Prob
B
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
TOR @ ATL
7 - 2
Jun 3, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 7
Jun 2, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 4
Apr 16, 2025
ATL @ TOR
1 - 3
Apr 15, 2025
ATL @ TOR
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Toronto
TOR
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.757
▲
OPS
.692
1
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+15100.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+109.0% more
Toronto: 1.6
vs
Atlanta: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+29.3% more
Toronto: 11.1
vs
Atlanta: 8.6
Total Bases (L5)
+8.8% more
Toronto: 15.4
vs
Atlanta: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.2
8
TOR Score
3.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.1 / 8.6
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.5
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 10.0
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 14.1
10.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.1
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ATL
TOR
ATL
ML
46%
74-87
46%
77-90
50%
80-80
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
90-71
57%
96-71
49%
79-81
52%
87-81
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
83-73-11
45%
70-85-5
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…