BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
8-10 | Road
7
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
8-8 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Mason Englert | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.23 Ldr
ERA
3.00
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
44%
RAYS
56%
RED SOX
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
BOS By 1-2 runs
8.8%
BOS By 3-4 runs
4.2%
TB By 1-2 runs
17.2%
TB By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
2.1
BOSTON
Tampa Bay
5.72
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.6
D
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.728
2
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+354.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+181.0% more
Tampa Bay: 2.4
vs
Boston: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+101.7% more
Tampa Bay: 20.3
vs
Boston: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
2.1
7
TB Score
5.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.6 / 7.2
7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
11.5 / 9.9
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
20.3 / 10.1
11.0 / 23.0
Walks
1.9 / 3.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
ATS
60%
97-66
58%
93-67
55%
90-73
48%
79-84
TTL
47%
73-81-9
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-10
47%
74-83-6
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