CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
8-7 | Road
6
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
6-9 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gunnar Henderson
#2 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.00 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
| Gunnar Henderson | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
63%
ORIOLES
37%
GUARDIANS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
69%
Under 0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.8%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.54
CLEVELAND
Baltimore
3.88
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
37% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CLE @ BAL
5 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
CLE @ BAL
9 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
CLE @ BAL
4 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
BAL @ CLE
4 - 8
Apr 18, 2026
BAL @ CLE
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.696
OPS
▲
.711
162
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+45.0% more
Baltimore: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+22.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Total Bases (L5)
+14.6% more
Baltimore: 12.0
vs
Cleveland: 10.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.5
6
BAL Score
3.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.3 / 7.2
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.2 / 10.4
4.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 10.5
14.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.0
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CLE
BAL
CLE
ML
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
49%
80-82
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-68
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-67
TTL
54%
81-70-5
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-6
43%
69-90-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …