ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
5-11 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
9-8 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drake Baldwin
#30 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.38
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
29%
BLUE JAYS
71%
BRAVES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.9%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.34
ATLANTA
Toronto
3.66
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
TOR @ ATL
7 - 2
Jun 3, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 7
Jun 2, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 4
Apr 16, 2025
ATL @ TOR
1 - 3
Apr 15, 2025
ATL @ TOR
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Toronto
TOR
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.757
▲
OPS
.692
1
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+15100.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+72.0% more
Toronto: 1.1
vs
Atlanta: 0.4
Hits (L5)
+17.3% more
Toronto: 9.1
vs
Atlanta: 7.7
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.3
3
TOR Score
3.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 7.7
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.0
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.7
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 15.1
14.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.4
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ATL
TOR
ATL
ML
46%
74-87
46%
77-90
50%
80-80
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
90-71
57%
96-71
49%
79-81
52%
87-81
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
83-73-11
45%
70-85-5
49%
76-80-11
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