DETROIT
TIGERSDET
10-7 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
9-9 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Keider Montero
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keider Montero | None-None | 9.00 | -- | 5.0 | 8 |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 4.76 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
9.00
ERA
Ldr 4.76
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
59%
BREWERS
41%
TIGERS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
18.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
14.1%
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.1%
MIL By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4.88
DETROIT
Milwaukee
4.69
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
MIL @ DET
4 - 5
Apr 22, 2026
MIL @ DET
2 - 5
Apr 21, 2026
MIL @ DET
12 - 4
Apr 16, 2025
DET @ MIL
1 - 5
Apr 15, 2025
DET @ MIL
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.720
OPS
▲
.743
181
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+14.9% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Walks (L5)
+41.7% more
Milwaukee: 4.1
vs
Detroit: 2.9
Hits (L5)
+39.3% more
Milwaukee: 7.3
vs
Detroit: 5.3
Total Bases (L5)
+30.9% more
Milwaukee: 11.2
vs
Detroit: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.9
1
MIL Score
4.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.3 / 5.3
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.7
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.8
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 8.6
19.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.9
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
DET
MIL
DET
ML
62%
101-61
54%
86-73
52%
84-78
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
94-68
64%
101-58
48%
78-84
57%
91-69
TTL
40%
62-92-8
46%
69-81-9
50%
77-77-8
46%
69-81-10
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