CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
9-8 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
7-10 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Gaddis
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Holliday
#7 | Second Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Gaddis | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Jackson Holliday | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
62%
ORIOLES
38%
GUARDIANS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.0%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.14
CLEVELAND
Baltimore
4.37
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CLE @ BAL
5 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
CLE @ BAL
9 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
CLE @ BAL
4 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
BAL @ CLE
4 - 8
Apr 18, 2026
BAL @ CLE
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.696
OPS
▲
.711
162
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
Baltimore: 1.8
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Home Runs (Season)
+22.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Total Bases (L5)
+15.6% more
Baltimore: 14.1
vs
Cleveland: 12.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.1
2
BAL Score
4.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 8.3
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.9
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 9.0
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 12.2
17.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.5
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CLE
BAL
CLE
ML
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
49%
80-82
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-68
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-67
TTL
54%
81-70-5
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-6
43%
69-90-2
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