KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
8-12 | Road
3
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
11-8 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 1.86 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.23 Ldr
ERA
1.86
--
WHIP
--
0.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
33%
TIGERS
67%
ROYALS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
KC By 1-2 runs
13.0%
KC By 3-4 runs
7.3%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.4%
DET By 3-4 runs
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
2.61
KANSAS CITY
Detroit
4.82
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
A
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
DET @ KC
7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026
DET @ KC
1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
DET @ KC
2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026
KC @ DET
5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026
KC @ DET
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718
OPS
▲
.720
170
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+37.6% more
Detroit: 7.9
vs
Kansas City: 5.7
Total Bases (L5)
+31.5% more
Detroit: 10.7
vs
Kansas City: 8.1
Home Runs (L5)
+14.0% more
Detroit: 0.5
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+6.5% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
2.6
3
DET Score
4.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 5.7
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 7.9
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 8.1
17.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.1
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
KC
DET
KC
ML
54%
86-73
55%
89-72
54%
87-73
56%
90-70
ATS
64%
101-58
57%
91-70
57%
91-69
58%
93-67
TTL
46%
69-81-9
58%
90-64-7
46%
69-81-10
54%
83-70-7
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