CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
10-10 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
8-11 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Greene
#21 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | None-None | 2.35 | -- | 3.0 | 4 |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.35
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
58%
ORIOLES
42%
REDS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.9%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.4
CINCINNATI
Baltimore
4.63
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
BAL @ CIN
2 - 3
Jul 4, 2026
BAL @ CIN
8 - 5
Jul 3, 2026
BAL @ CIN
3 - 0
Apr 20, 2025
CIN @ BAL
24 - 2
Apr 19, 2025
CIN @ BAL
5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.699
OPS
▲
.711
213
▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+29.3% more
Baltimore: 2.1
vs
Cincinnati: 1.6
Walks (L5)
+11.5% more
Baltimore: 3.8
vs
Cincinnati: 3.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+1.2%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.4
5
BAL Score
4.6
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 9.3
11.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.6
5.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 11.0
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 15.9
28.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.4
9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CIN
BAL
CIN
ML
53%
83-73
55%
88-71
57%
90-69
49%
79-81
ATS
61%
95-60-1
54%
86-73
57%
90-68-1
50%
80-80
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-73-5
51%
78-75-6
54%
83-72-5
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