CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
10-11 | Road
24
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
9-11 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Noelvi Marte
#4 | Right Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Holliday
#7 | Second Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noelvi Marte | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jackson Holliday | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
53%
ORIOLES
47%
REDS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.9%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.96
CINCINNATI
Baltimore
5.55
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
BAL @ CIN
2 - 3
Jul 4, 2026
BAL @ CIN
8 - 5
Jul 3, 2026
BAL @ CIN
3 - 0
Apr 20, 2025
CIN @ BAL
24 - 2
Apr 19, 2025
CIN @ BAL
5 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.699
OPS
▲
.711
213
▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+75.0% more
Baltimore: 3.1
vs
Cincinnati: 1.8
Walks (L5)
+20.3% more
Baltimore: 5.5
vs
Cincinnati: 4.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+1.2%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.0
24
BAL Score
5.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 10.6
7.0 / 25.0
Home Runs
3.1 / 1.8
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.7
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
18.3 / 18.3
13.0 / 40.0
Walks
5.5 / 4.6
11.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CIN
BAL
CIN
ML
53%
83-73
55%
88-71
57%
90-69
49%
79-81
ATS
61%
95-60-1
54%
86-73
57%
90-68-1
50%
80-80
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-73-5
51%
78-75-6
54%
83-72-5
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