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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

4-16  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Apr 20 • 1:35 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

12-10  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Sean Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Burke

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ceddanne Rafaela
STARTING PITCHER

Ceddanne Rafaela

#3 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Burke None-None 6.23 -- 5.0 5
Ceddanne Rafaela None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
6.23 ERA --
-- WHIP --
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
5 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
17%
📊
RED SOX
83%
WHITE SOX --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Boston)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

41.2%

Red Sox Cover

58.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.9%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.5%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.08
CHICAGO
3.97
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 CHW @ BOS 11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026 CHW @ BOS 0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 CHW @ BOS 2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026 BOS @ CHW 2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026 BOS @ CHW 5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.826 ▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +104.0% more
Boston: 1.8 vs Chicago: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +61.8% more
Boston: 15.6 vs Chicago: 9.6
Strikeouts (L5) +57.6% more
Boston: 10.2 vs Chicago: 6.5
Hits (L5) +33.3% more
Boston: 8.1 vs Chicago: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.1 8
BOS Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.1 / 6.1 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 6.5 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 9.6 11.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.4 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHW
BOS
CHW
ML
50% 80-80
49% 81-86
47% 76-87
56% 94-73
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 99-68
48% 79-84
56% 93-74
TTL
46% 72-83-5
58% 96-69-2
47% 74-83-6
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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