CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
5-16 | Road
2
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
12-11 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Miguel Vargas
#20 | Third Base@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 4.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.00
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
22%
RED SOX
78%
WHITE SOX
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
CHW By 1-2 runs
16.0%
CHW By 3-4 runs
10.2%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.07
CHICAGO
Boston
4.2
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
78% Win Prob
B
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
CHW @ BOS
11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026
CHW @ BOS
0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
CHW @ BOS
2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026
BOS @ CHW
2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026
BOS @ CHW
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.826
▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+42.2% more
Boston: 9.5
vs
Chicago: 6.7
Home Runs (L5)
+29.9% more
Boston: 1.5
vs
Chicago: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+19.6% more
Boston: 14.0
vs
Chicago: 11.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+83.3% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.1
2
BOS Score
4.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.1
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 6.7
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 11.7
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.9 / 4.2
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHW
BOS
CHW
ML
50%
80-80
49%
81-86
47%
76-87
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
99-68
48%
79-84
56%
93-74
TTL
46%
72-83-5
58%
96-69-2
47%
74-83-6
51%
84-81-2
Contextual Game News
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