SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
16-6 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
13-9 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brenan Hanifee
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 1.80 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Brenan Hanifee | None-None | 1.54 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.80
ERA
Ldr 1.54
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
65%
TIGERS
35%
PADRES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
25%
Under 0
75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.0%
DET By 1-2 runs
15.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.11
SAN DIEGO
Detroit
3.82
DETROIT
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
DET @ SD
0 - 3
Mar 27, 2026
DET @ SD
5 - 2
Mar 26, 2026
DET @ SD
8 - 2
Apr 23, 2025
SD @ DET
0 - 6
Apr 22, 2025
SD @ DET
2 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Detroit
DET
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925
▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+47.0% more
San Diego: 1.0
vs
Detroit: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Detroit: 4.5
Total Bases (L5)
+24.8% more
San Diego: 14.7
vs
Detroit: 11.0
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Detroit: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.1
4
DET Score
3.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.0
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.4
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 14.7
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.6 / 1.8
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
SD
DET
SD
ML
54%
86-73
51%
85-83
54%
87-73
51%
85-82
ATS
64%
101-58
54%
91-77
57%
91-69
55%
92-75
TTL
46%
69-81-9
51%
82-80-6
46%
69-81-10
54%
86-74-6
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