PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
13-9 | Road
4
NEW YORK
METSNYM
15-7 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | None-None | 6.43 | -- | 6.1 | 6 |
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.43
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
6
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
40%
METS
60%
PHILLIES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
PHI By 1-2 runs
11.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
6.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2.73
PHILADELPHIA
New York
5.35
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.6
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724
▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+6700.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+60.0% more
New York: 1.1
vs
Philadelphia: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+32.9% more
New York: 3.0
vs
Philadelphia: 2.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+23.1% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.7
4
NYM Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 10.7
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.5
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 9.0
13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 15.1
17.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.3
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50%
79-80
59%
97-67
48%
76-83
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-66
65%
107-57
49%
78-81
51%
83-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
57%
88-67-9
51%
74-72-13
51%
78-76-9
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