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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

16-7  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Apr 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

14-9  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Xander Bogaerts
STARTING PITCHER

Xander Bogaerts

#2 | Shortstop
@
Jack Flaherty
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Flaherty

#9 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Xander Bogaerts None-None -- -- -- --
Jack Flaherty None-None 2.63 -- 6.0 9
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.63
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 9
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
60%
📊
TIGERS
40%
PADRES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Detroit)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

38.2%

Tigers Cover

61.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

SD By 1-2 runs

15.8%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.0%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.03
SAN DIEGO
5.23
DETROIT
Simulated Score
5
SAN DIEGO
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 DET @ SD 0 - 3
Mar 27, 2026 DET @ SD 5 - 2
Mar 26, 2026 DET @ SD 8 - 2
Apr 23, 2025 SD @ DET 0 - 6
Apr 22, 2025 SD @ DET 2 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Detroit DET
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925 ▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4425.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +47.0% more
Detroit: 0.6 vs San Diego: 0.1
Hits (L5) +12.5% more
Detroit: 9.4 vs San Diego: 8.3
Home Runs (L5) +64.0% more
San Diego: 1.0 vs Detroit: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.0 2
DET Score 5.2 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 8.3 3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 7.3 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 13.1 3.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
SD
DET
SD
ML
54% 86-73
51% 85-83
54% 87-73
51% 85-82
ATS
64% 101-58
54% 91-77
57% 91-69
55% 92-75
TTL
46% 69-81-9
51% 82-80-6
46% 69-81-10
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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