BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
9-12 | Road
0
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
9-13 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Holliday
#7 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Nasim Nunez
#26 | Second Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Holliday | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Nasim Nunez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
52%
NATIONALS
48%
ORIOLES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.7%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.1
BALTIMORE
Washington
4.75
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
WSH @ BAL
6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026
WSH @ BAL
4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026
WSH @ BAL
1 - 3
May 17, 2026
BAL @ WSH
7 - 3
May 16, 2026
BAL @ WSH
3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Washington
WSH
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.711
OPS
▲
.744
199
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+62.1% more
Washington: 11.3
vs
Baltimore: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.7% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Home Runs (Season)
+5.5% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Baltimore: 199.0
OPS (Season)
+3.3%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.1
0
WSH Score
4.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 7.4
14.0 / 1.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 2.4
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 7.0
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 16.5
29.0 / 1.0
Walks
3.2 / 7.4
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BAL
WSH
BAL
ML
57%
92-69
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
ATS
58%
93-68
61%
95-60-1
57%
91-70
57%
90-68-1
TTL
50%
77-78-6
54%
81-70-5
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-75-6
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