PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
13-10 | Road
1
NEW YORK
METSNYM
16-7 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Torrens
#13 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 6.48 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Luis Torrens | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.48
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
36%
METS
64%
PHILLIES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
PHI By 1-2 runs
12.5%
PHI By 3-4 runs
6.9%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2.99
PHILADELPHIA
New York
5.36
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
B
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724
▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+6700.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+107.0% more
New York: 1.7
vs
Philadelphia: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+53.0% more
New York: 3.4
vs
Philadelphia: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.9% more
New York: 11.1
vs
Philadelphia: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.0
1
NYM Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.5
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.1 / 9.0
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 13.8
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.2
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50%
79-80
59%
97-67
48%
76-83
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-66
65%
107-57
49%
78-81
51%
83-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
57%
88-67-9
51%
74-72-13
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …