TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
12-11 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
11-11 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.75 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.25
ERA
Ldr 0.75
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
52%
ASTROS
48%
BLUE JAYS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TOR By 1-2 runs
12.2%
TOR By 3-4 runs
6.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.2%
HOU By 3-4 runs
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.72
TORONTO
Houston
5.19
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
B
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TOR @ HOU
5 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
TOR @ HOU
2 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TOR @ HOU
3 - 1
Jun 24, 2026
HOU @ TOR
3 - 1
Jun 23, 2026
HOU @ TOR
9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.692
▲
OPS
.582
152
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+29.9% more
Houston: 12.3
vs
Toronto: 9.5
Home Runs (L5)
+26.0% more
Houston: 0.5
vs
Toronto: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+18.3% more
Houston: 8.3
vs
Toronto: 7.0
Home Runs (Season)
+97.4% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.7
1
HOU Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.0
10.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 11.7
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 9.5
15.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.7
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TOR
HOU
TOR
ML
50%
81-82
46%
74-87
47%
77-87
50%
80-80
ATS
56%
91-72
56%
90-71
55%
90-74
49%
79-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
80-76-5
45%
69-86-9
45%
70-85-5
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