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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

17-7  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Apr 23 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

14-10  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
@
Javier Baez
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Baez

#28 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yuki Matsui None-None 3.27 -- 1.0 2
Javier Baez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.27 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
63%
📊
TIGERS
37%
PADRES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Detroit)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

46.9%

Tigers Cover

53.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

SD By 1-2 runs

17.9%

SD By 3-4 runs

12.7%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.9%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.17
SAN DIEGO
4.48
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
37% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 DET @ SD 0 - 3
Mar 27, 2026 DET @ SD 5 - 2
Mar 26, 2026 DET @ SD 8 - 2
Apr 23, 2025 SD @ DET 0 - 6
Apr 22, 2025 SD @ DET 2 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Detroit DET
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925 ▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4425.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +64.0% more
Detroit: 0.7 vs San Diego: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +26.9% more
Detroit: 9.1 vs San Diego: 7.2
Home Runs (L5) +76.0% more
San Diego: 1.0 vs Detroit: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.2 0
DET Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.6 10.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 1.0 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 7.2 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 11.7 20.0 / 2.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
SD
DET
SD
ML
54% 86-73
51% 85-83
54% 87-73
51% 85-82
ATS
64% 101-58
54% 91-77
57% 91-69
55% 92-75
TTL
46% 69-81-9
51% 82-80-6
46% 69-81-10
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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