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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

9-13  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Apr 23 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

10-13  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jackson Holliday
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Holliday

#7 | Second Base
@
Nasim Nunez
STARTING PITCHER

Nasim Nunez

#26 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jackson Holliday None-None -- -- -- --
Nasim Nunez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
47%
📊
NATIONALS
53%
ORIOLES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Washington)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

28.8%

Nationals Cover

71.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

BAL By 1-2 runs

12.9%

BAL By 3-4 runs

7.2%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.4%

WSH By 3-4 runs

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.26
BALTIMORE
5.5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 WSH @ BAL 6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 WSH @ BAL 4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026 WSH @ BAL 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 BAL @ WSH 7 - 3
May 16, 2026 BAL @ WSH 3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Washington WSH
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.711
OPS
▲ .744
199
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +79.4% more
Washington: 9.5 vs Baltimore: 5.3
Total Bases (L5) +49.2% more
Washington: 16.9 vs Baltimore: 11.3
Strikeouts (L5) +36.5% more
Washington: 9.5 vs Baltimore: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season) +13.7% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.3 3
WSH Score 5.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 5.3 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 7.0 8.0 / 1.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 11.3 12.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.4 / 4.9 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BAL
WSH
BAL
ML
57% 92-69
53% 83-73
54% 87-74
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-68
61% 95-60-1
57% 91-70
57% 90-68-1
TTL
50% 77-78-6
54% 81-70-5
42% 65-90-6
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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