TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
12-12 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
12-11 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Myles Straw
#3 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Straw | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.69 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
0.69
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
48%
ASTROS
52%
BLUE JAYS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TOR By 1-2 runs
11.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
5.9%
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.8%
HOU By 3-4 runs
19.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.56
TORONTO
Houston
5.33
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.8
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TOR @ HOU
5 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
TOR @ HOU
2 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TOR @ HOU
3 - 1
Jun 24, 2026
HOU @ TOR
3 - 1
Jun 23, 2026
HOU @ TOR
9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.692
▲
OPS
.582
152
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+65.9% more
Houston: 8.9
vs
Toronto: 5.4
Total Bases (L5)
+65.5% more
Houston: 13.2
vs
Toronto: 8.0
Home Runs (L5)
+18.0% more
Houston: 0.7
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+97.4% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.6
1
HOU Score
5.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 5.4
13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 10.5
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 8.0
18.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.1
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TOR
HOU
TOR
ML
50%
81-82
46%
74-87
47%
77-87
50%
80-80
ATS
56%
91-72
56%
90-71
55%
90-74
49%
79-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
80-76-5
45%
69-86-9
45%
70-85-5
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