TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
14-10 | Road
3
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
11-13 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 3.33 | -- | 5.1 | 6 |
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 2.1 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.33
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.1
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
62%
ATHLETICS
38%
RANGERS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
TEX By 1-2 runs
18.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
12.8%
ATH By 1-2 runs
18.8%
ATH By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3.56
TEXAS
Athletics
3.81
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATH @ TEX
9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
ATH @ TEX
5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026
ATH @ TEX
1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026
TEX @ ATH
2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
TEX @ ATH
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.719
183
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+69.0% more
Athletics: 1.2
vs
Texas: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+22.3% more
Athletics: 9.2
vs
Texas: 7.5
Total Bases (L5)
+21.6% more
Athletics: 16.9
vs
Texas: 13.9
Home Runs (L5)
+17.4% more
Athletics: 1.8
vs
Texas: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.6
3
ATH Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.5
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.6
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.2
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 13.9
13.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TEX
ATH
TEX
ML
59%
95-67
53%
86-76
54%
87-74
57%
91-70
ATS
52%
84-78
57%
92-70
50%
81-80
61%
98-63
TTL
54%
84-73-5
53%
78-70-14
42%
66-90-5
55%
81-66-14
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