Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Nationals NYM @ WSH

NEW YORK

METSNYM

18-7  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Apr 25 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

11-14  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kodai Senga None-None 1.26 -- 6.0 5
Jake Irvin None-None 3.19 -- 7.1 4
None-None W-L None-None
1.26 Ldr ERA 3.19
-- WHIP --
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.1
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
METS
77%
📊
NATIONALS
23%
METS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 24%
Under 0 76%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

71.1%

Nationals Cover

28.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

18.8%

WSH By 1-2 runs

12.9%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.7
NEW YORK
3.47
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.705
OPS
▲ .744
204
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +33.0% more
New York: 0.4 vs Washington: 0.0
Walks (L5) +22.9% more
New York: 3.7 vs Washington: 2.9
Hits (L5) +21.9% more
New York: 9.3 vs Washington: 7.2
Total Bases (L5) +16.6% more
New York: 14.6 vs Washington: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.7 4
WSH Score 3.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 9.3 13.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 9.1 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 14.6 17.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57% 92-69
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-66
57% 91-70
49% 78-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 80-66-13
42% 65-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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