BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
14-14 | Road
7
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
15-10 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 3.65 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 1.29 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.65
ERA
Ldr 1.29
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
40%
GUARDIANS
60%
RED SOX
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.7%
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.46
BOSTON
Cleveland
4.08
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CLE @ BOS
1 - 0
Sep 23, 2026
CLE @ BOS
0 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
CLE @ BOS
3 - 2
May 31, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 4
May 30, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Cleveland
CLE
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.380
.409
OPS
▲
.696
2
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+50.7% more
Boston: 1.4
vs
Cleveland: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Boston: 0.7
vs
Cleveland: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+18.2% more
Boston: 13.1
vs
Cleveland: 10.7
Walks (L5)
+10.3% more
Boston: 5.5
vs
Cleveland: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.5
7
CLE Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 6.8
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.1 / 10.7
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 13.1
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
5.0 / 5.5
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BOS
CLE
BOS
ML
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
49%
80-82
47%
76-87
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
48%
79-84
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
72-83-5
43%
69-90-2
47%
74-83-6
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