BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
10-15 | Road
2
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
16-10 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young | None-None | 6.23 | -- | 4.2 | 6 |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.23
ERA
Ldr 2.84
--
WHIP
--
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
29%
TIGERS
71%
ORIOLES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.84
BALTIMORE
Detroit
4.53
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
BAL @ DET
10 - 9
Jul 28, 2026
BAL @ DET
0 - 14
Jul 27, 2026
BAL @ DET
8 - 5
May 24, 2026
DET @ BAL
3 - 5
May 22, 2026
DET @ BAL
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Detroit
DET
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
4.46
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.711
OPS
▲
.720
199
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+70.5% more
Detroit: 9.1
vs
Baltimore: 5.3
Home Runs (L5)
+44.0% more
Detroit: 1.2
vs
Baltimore: 0.7
Hits (L5)
+38.5% more
Detroit: 8.2
vs
Baltimore: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+35.2% more
Detroit: 12.7
vs
Baltimore: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.8
2
DET Score
4.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 5.9
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 5.3
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 9.4
13.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.7
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BAL
DET
BAL
ML
54%
86-73
53%
83-73
54%
87-73
57%
90-69
ATS
64%
101-58
61%
95-60-1
57%
91-69
57%
90-68-1
TTL
46%
69-81-9
54%
81-70-5
46%
69-81-10
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
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