BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
15-14 | Road
13
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
15-11 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Austin Hedges
#27 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 1.72 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Austin Hedges | None-None | 9.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.72 Ldr
ERA
9.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
44%
GUARDIANS
56%
RED SOX
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
15.7%
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.72
BOSTON
Cleveland
3.95
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CLE @ BOS
1 - 0
Sep 23, 2026
CLE @ BOS
0 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
CLE @ BOS
3 - 2
May 31, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 4
May 30, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Cleveland
CLE
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.380
.409
OPS
▲
.696
2
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+70.4% more
Boston: 1.6
vs
Cleveland: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+16.8% more
Boston: 13.4
vs
Cleveland: 11.2
Errors (L5)
+16.0% more
Boston: 0.5
vs
Cleveland: 0.3
Home Runs (Season)
+8000.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.7
13
CLE Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
4.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.9
8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.6
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 10.8
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 13.4
13.0 / 27.0
Walks
5.0 / 4.0
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BOS
CLE
BOS
ML
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
49%
80-82
47%
76-87
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
48%
79-84
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
72-83-5
43%
69-90-2
47%
74-83-6
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