Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Nationals NYM @ WSH

NEW YORK

METSNYM

19-9  |  Road

19
FINAL
Mon, Apr 28 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

13-15  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Max Kranick
STARTING PITCHER

Max Kranick

#35 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Max Kranick None-None 2.55 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.55
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
71%
📊
NATIONALS
29%
METS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

65.0%

Nationals Cover

35.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

14.9%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.26
NEW YORK
3.72
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.705
OPS
▲ .744
204
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +27.3% more
New York: 9.6 vs Washington: 7.0
Home Runs (L5) +42.0% more
Washington: 1.0 vs New York: 0.6
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
Washington: 0.6 vs New York: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +17.6% more
Washington: 5.1 vs New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.3 19
WSH Score 3.7 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 8.7 12.0 / 21.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.6 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 9.6 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 11.9 19.0 / 38.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.8 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57% 92-69
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-66
57% 91-70
49% 78-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 80-66-13
42% 65-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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