DETROIT
TIGERSDET
18-10 | Road
5
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
14-13 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 2.63 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.64 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.63
ERA
Ldr 0.64
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
63%
ASTROS
37%
TIGERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
25%
Under 0
75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
18.9%
DET By 3-4 runs
14.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.9%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4.85
DETROIT
Houston
4.54
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
HOU @ DET
7 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
HOU @ DET
8 - 6
Jun 26, 2026
HOU @ DET
0 - 8
Jun 25, 2026
HOU @ DET
2 - 1
Jun 17, 2026
DET @ HOU
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
181
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+53.0% more
Detroit: 0.6
vs
Houston: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.8% more
Detroit: 11.3
vs
Houston: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.7% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.9
5
HOU Score
4.5
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.4
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 11.3
12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 12.5
18.0 / 16.0
Walks
1.4 / 1.7
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DET
HOU
DET
ML
50%
81-82
54%
86-73
47%
77-87
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
91-72
64%
101-58
55%
90-74
57%
91-69
TTL
45%
70-84-9
46%
69-81-9
45%
69-86-9
46%
69-81-10
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