KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
14-15 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
14-14 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jonathan Aranda
#8 | First Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 0.79 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Aranda | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.79
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
48%
RAYS
52%
ROYALS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
KC By 1-2 runs
17.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
12.3%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TB By 3-4 runs
14.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
2.95
KANSAS CITY
Tampa Bay
3.38
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
TB @ KC
5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026
TB @ KC
4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026
TB @ KC
10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026
KC @ TB
2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026
KC @ TB
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲
.728
170
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+44.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8
vs
Kansas City: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+11.9% more
Tampa Bay: 3.0
vs
Kansas City: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.6% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.1%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Kansas City: 24.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.0
3
TB Score
3.4
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.5
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 7.6
4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 12.6
13.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.7
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
KC
TB
KC
ML
58%
95-68
55%
89-72
58%
95-68
56%
90-70
ATS
60%
97-66
57%
91-70
55%
90-73
58%
93-67
TTL
47%
73-81-9
58%
90-64-7
51%
78-75-10
54%
83-70-7
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