DETROIT
TIGERSDET
18-12 | Road
7
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
16-13 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 2.93 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Bryan King | None-None | 1.84 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.93
ERA
Ldr 1.84
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
55%
ASTROS
45%
TIGERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DET By 1-2 runs
16.2%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.4%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4.06
DETROIT
Houston
5.12
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
HOU @ DET
7 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
HOU @ DET
8 - 6
Jun 26, 2026
HOU @ DET
0 - 8
Jun 25, 2026
HOU @ DET
2 - 1
Jun 17, 2026
DET @ HOU
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.720
▲
OPS
.582
181
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+20.2% more
Houston: 9.0
vs
Detroit: 7.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.3% more
Houston: 10.2
vs
Detroit: 8.8
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Detroit: 0.7
vs
Houston: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.1
7
HOU Score
5.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 7.5
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 8.8
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 14.5
16.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.9
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DET
HOU
DET
ML
50%
81-82
54%
86-73
47%
77-87
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
91-72
64%
101-58
55%
90-74
57%
91-69
TTL
45%
70-84-9
46%
69-81-9
45%
69-86-9
46%
69-81-10
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