Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Rays KC @ TB

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

15-15  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Apr 30 • 7:05 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

14-15  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Englert
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Englert

#59 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 0.73 -- 1.0 --
Mason Englert None-None 2.65 -- 3.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
0.73 Ldr ERA 2.65
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
52%
📊
RAYS
48%
ROYALS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Tampa Bay)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

43.5%

Rays Cover

56.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

KC By 1-2 runs

17.1%

KC By 3-4 runs

11.7%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.73
KANSAS CITY
3.38
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
5
KANSAS CITY
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim Royals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.1
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 TB @ KC 5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026 TB @ KC 4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026 TB @ KC 10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026 KC @ TB 2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026 KC @ TB 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .728
170 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +63.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Walks (L5) +22.4% more
Tampa Bay: 3.0 vs Kansas City: 2.5
Total Bases (L5) +14.4% more
Tampa Bay: 13.0 vs Kansas City: 11.4
Runs per Game (Season) +6.6% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 2.7 3
TB Score 3.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 8.4 4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.4 / 7.7 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 11.4 4.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.5 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
KC
TB
KC
ML
58% 95-68
55% 89-72
58% 95-68
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-66
57% 91-70
55% 90-73
58% 93-67
TTL
47% 73-81-9
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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