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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

15-15  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Apr 30 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

16-14  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Jonah Heim
STARTING PITCHER

Jonah Heim

#15 | Catcher
@
Nathan Eovaldi
STARTING PITCHER

Nathan Eovaldi

#17 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jonah Heim None-None -- -- -- --
Nathan Eovaldi None-None 2.11 -- 6.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.11
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 8
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
47%
📊
RANGERS
53%
ATHLETICS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Texas)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

31.2%

Rangers Cover

68.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

ATH By 1-2 runs

13.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

7.9%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.89
ATHLETICS
4.85
TEXAS
Simulated Score
6
ATHLETICS
3
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Athletics (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATH @ TEX 9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 ATH @ TEX 5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026 ATH @ TEX 1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026 TEX @ ATH 2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026 TEX @ ATH 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.719 ▲
OPS
.713
194 ▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +38.9% more
Texas: 11.0 vs Athletics: 7.9
Total Bases (L5) +25.4% more
Texas: 14.7 vs Athletics: 11.7
Errors (L5) +13.0% more
Texas: 0.5 vs Athletics: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +54.0% more
Athletics: 0.8 vs Texas: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 2.9 7
TEX Score 4.9 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.0 / 7.9 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 7.6 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 11.7 9.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.9 / 5.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ATH
TEX
ATH
ML
53% 86-76
59% 95-67
57% 91-70
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 92-70
52% 84-78
61% 98-63
50% 81-80
TTL
53% 78-70-14
54% 84-73-5
55% 81-66-14
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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