Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Rays KC @ TB

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

16-15  |  Road

8
FINAL
Thu, May 1 • 1:10 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

14-16  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Junior Caminero
STARTING PITCHER

Junior Caminero

#13 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 1.26 -- 1.0 --
Junior Caminero None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.26 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
55%
📊
RAYS
45%
ROYALS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

53.3%

Rays Cover

46.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

18.9%

KC By 3-4 runs

14.5%

TB By 1-2 runs

17.8%

TB By 3-4 runs

12.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.11
KANSAS CITY
2.78
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.9
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 TB @ KC 5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026 TB @ KC 4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026 TB @ KC 10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026 KC @ TB 2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026 KC @ TB 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .728
170 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +29.4% more
Kansas City: 3.3 vs Tampa Bay: 2.3
Hits (L5) +24.1% more
Kansas City: 9.2 vs Tampa Bay: 7.0
Total Bases (L5) +20.4% more
Kansas City: 12.6 vs Tampa Bay: 10.0
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.1 8
TB Score 2.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 9.2 8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 6.5 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 12.6 12.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.3 5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
KC
TB
KC
ML
58% 95-68
55% 89-72
58% 95-68
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-66
57% 91-70
55% 90-73
58% 93-67
TTL
47% 73-81-9
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 16 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 12 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 7 hours, 27 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 10 minutes ago
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
bleacherreport 19 hours, 23 minutes ago