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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

19-12  |  Road

10
FINAL
Thu, May 1 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

12-17  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Javier Baez
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Baez

#28 | Shortstop
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Baez None-None -- -- -- --
Jose Fermin None-None 9.00 -- 0.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 9.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
69%
📊
ANGELS
31%
TIGERS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

51.9%

Angels Cover

48.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.1%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.1%

LAA By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.67
DETROIT
3.48
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
2
DETROIT
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 DET @ LAA 2 - 3
Jul 18, 2026 DET @ LAA 7 - 0
Jul 17, 2026 DET @ LAA 2 - 1
May 28, 2026 LAA @ DET 7 - 1
May 27, 2026 LAA @ DET 0 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.720 ▲
OPS
.679
181 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +47.5% more
Detroit: 1.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +30.6% more
Detroit: 9.2 vs Los Angeles: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +25.5% more
Detroit: 15.3 vs Los Angeles: 11.4
Hits (L5) +18.7% more
Detroit: 8.7 vs Los Angeles: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 3.7 10
LAA Score 3.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.7 8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.8 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 9.2 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 15.3 15.0 / 25.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.3 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
DET
LAA
DET
ML
59% 96-66
54% 86-73
55% 89-73
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 97-65
64% 101-58
51% 82-80
57% 91-69
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 69-81-9
52% 82-75-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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