ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
17-15 | Road
6
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
12-18 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 3.93 | -- | 3.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
3.93
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
63%
MARLINS
37%
ATHLETICS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.2%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.4%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.2
ATHLETICS
Miami
4.62
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Miami
3
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
37% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim
Athletics (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
MIA @ ATH
9 - 8
Jul 4, 2026
MIA @ ATH
7 - 2
Jul 3, 2026
MIA @ ATH
12 - 5
May 4, 2025
ATH @ MIA
3 - 2
May 3, 2025
ATH @ MIA
6 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.719
OPS
▲
.727
194
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+61.2% more
Miami: 5.9
vs
Athletics: 3.6
Home Runs (L5)
+48.0% more
Miami: 1.3
vs
Athletics: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+34.0% more
Miami: 0.9
vs
Athletics: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+18.5% more
Miami: 14.1
vs
Athletics: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.2
6
MIA Score
4.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 8.6
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 6.7
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 11.9
11.0 / 12.0
Walks
5.9 / 3.6
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATH
MIA
ATH
ML
48%
78-84
59%
95-67
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
52%
84-78
54%
86-74
50%
81-80
TTL
56%
88-69-5
54%
84-73-5
53%
82-73-5
42%
66-90-5
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