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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

20-12  |  Road

9
FINAL
Fri, May 2 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

12-18  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Kenley Jansen
STARTING PITCHER

Kenley Jansen

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ryan Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Johnson

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kenley Jansen None-None 6.23 -- 0.2 1
Ryan Johnson None-None 5.14 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.23 ERA Ldr 5.14
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
71%
📊
ANGELS
29%
TIGERS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

62.0%

Angels Cover

38.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.8%

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
DETROIT
3.08
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 DET @ LAA 2 - 3
Jul 18, 2026 DET @ LAA 7 - 0
Jul 17, 2026 DET @ LAA 2 - 1
May 28, 2026 LAA @ DET 7 - 1
May 27, 2026 LAA @ DET 0 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.720 ▲
OPS
.679
181 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +48.8% more
Detroit: 2.5 vs Los Angeles: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +32.0% more
Detroit: 18.5 vs Los Angeles: 12.6
Hits (L5) +27.1% more
Detroit: 10.1 vs Los Angeles: 7.4
Home Runs (Season) +14.9% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.3 9
LAA Score 3.1 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 10.1 4.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 2.5 1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 8.1 8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 18.5 8.0 / 30.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.5 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
DET
LAA
DET
ML
59% 96-66
54% 86-73
55% 89-73
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 97-65
64% 101-58
51% 82-80
57% 91-69
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 69-81-9
52% 82-75-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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