CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
18-14 | Road
5
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
16-16 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Williams
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | None-None | 5.06 | -- | 4.0 | 9 |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.06
ERA
Ldr 2.08
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
56%
BLUE JAYS
44%
GUARDIANS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
15.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.96
CLEVELAND
Toronto
3.23
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
6 - 3
Sep 2, 2026
TOR @ CLE
11 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
TOR @ CLE
1 - 6
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
CLE @ TOR
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.696
▲
OPS
.692
162
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+45.1% more
Cleveland: 1.0
vs
Toronto: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+14.0% more
Cleveland: 2.9
vs
Toronto: 2.5
Home Runs (Season)
+6.2% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.5% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
5
TOR Score
3.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 7.3
8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 6.8
16.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 12.6
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.9
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CLE
TOR
CLE
ML
46%
74-87
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
49%
80-82
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-68
49%
79-81
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
80-76-5
55%
88-71-2
45%
70-85-5
43%
69-90-2
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