ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
18-15 | Road
6
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
12-19 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Kurtz
#16 | First Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Meyer
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Max Meyer | None-None | 3.92 | -- | 5.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.92
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
66%
MARLINS
34%
ATHLETICS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
19.0%
MIA By 1-2 runs
12.4%
MIA By 3-4 runs
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
5.37
ATHLETICS
Miami
2.97
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Athletics
Loss
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
A
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
MIA @ ATH
9 - 8
Jul 4, 2026
MIA @ ATH
7 - 2
Jul 3, 2026
MIA @ ATH
12 - 5
May 4, 2025
ATH @ MIA
3 - 2
May 3, 2025
ATH @ MIA
6 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.719
OPS
▲
.727
194
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.7% more
Athletics: 7.8
vs
Miami: 6.5
Home Runs (Season)
+13.4% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.2%
Athletics: 40.2%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Walks (L5)
+90.2% more
Miami: 5.2
vs
Athletics: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
5.4
6
MIA Score
3.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.1
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.9
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 7.8
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 11.9
14.0 / 22.0
Walks
5.2 / 2.8
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATH
MIA
ATH
ML
48%
78-84
59%
95-67
55%
88-72
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-71
52%
84-78
54%
86-74
50%
81-80
TTL
56%
88-69-5
54%
84-73-5
53%
82-73-5
42%
66-90-5
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