KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
17-16 | Road
4
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
13-18 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Coby Mayo
#16 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 0.68 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Coby Mayo | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.68
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
60%
ORIOLES
40%
ROYALS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
79%
Under 0
21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
19.5%
KC By 3-4 runs
15.9%
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.59
KANSAS CITY
Baltimore
2.73
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Royals
Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
A
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
KC @ BAL
2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026
KC @ BAL
1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026
KC @ BAL
3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026
BAL @ KC
8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026
BAL @ KC
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718
▲
OPS
.711
170
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+11.2% more
Kansas City: 8.8
vs
Baltimore: 7.8
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.3%
Kansas City: 24.7%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
OPS (Season)
+0.7%
Kansas City: 71.8%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Kansas City: 40.2%
vs
Baltimore: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.6
4
BAL Score
2.7
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.8
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 5.8
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 12.2
6.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.0 / 1.8
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
KC
BAL
KC
ML
53%
83-73
55%
89-72
57%
90-69
56%
90-70
ATS
61%
95-60-1
57%
91-70
57%
90-68-1
58%
93-67
TTL
54%
81-70-5
58%
90-64-7
51%
78-75-6
54%
83-70-7
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