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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

18-16  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sun, May 4 • 1:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

13-19  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yennier Cano
STARTING PITCHER

Yennier Cano

#78 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 0.63 -- 1.0 --
Yennier Cano None-None 1.54 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.63 Ldr ERA 1.54
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
62%
📊
ORIOLES
38%
ROYALS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 84%
Under 0 16%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

62.8%

Orioles Cover

37.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.0%

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.5%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.75
KANSAS CITY
2.44
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Orioles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim Orioles (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.2
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 KC @ BAL 2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026 KC @ BAL 1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026 KC @ BAL 3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026 BAL @ KC 8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026 BAL @ KC 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718 ▲
OPS
.711
170
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +39.5% more
Kansas City: 1.3 vs Baltimore: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +26.5% more
Kansas City: 14.1 vs Baltimore: 10.4
Hits (L5) +15.5% more
Kansas City: 8.5 vs Baltimore: 7.2
Batting Avg (Season) +1.3%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.8 11
BAL Score 2.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 8.5 11.0 / 17.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 4.0 / 7.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 6.2 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 14.1 27.0 / 41.0
Walks 3.0 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
KC
BAL
KC
ML
53% 83-73
55% 89-72
57% 90-69
56% 90-70
ATS
61% 95-60-1
57% 91-70
57% 90-68-1
58% 93-67
TTL
54% 81-70-5
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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