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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

21-13  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, May 4 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

13-19  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Brenan Hanifee
STARTING PITCHER

Brenan Hanifee

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brenan Hanifee None-None 1.53 -- 1.1 --
Jose Fermin None-None 15.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.53 Ldr ERA 15.00
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
70%
📊
ANGELS
30%
TIGERS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

63.9%

Angels Cover

36.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.2%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.22
DETROIT
2.8
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
70% Win Prob
B
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 DET @ LAA 2 - 3
Jul 18, 2026 DET @ LAA 7 - 0
Jul 17, 2026 DET @ LAA 2 - 1
May 28, 2026 LAA @ DET 7 - 1
May 27, 2026 LAA @ DET 0 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.720 ▲
OPS
.679
181 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +69.1% more
Detroit: 2.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +39.5% more
Detroit: 18.2 vs Los Angeles: 11.0
Strikeouts (L5) +36.0% more
Detroit: 9.6 vs Los Angeles: 6.2
Hits (L5) +22.0% more
Detroit: 9.6 vs Los Angeles: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.2 13
LAA Score 2.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 9.6 5.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 2.6 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 9.6 8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 18.2 7.0 / 27.0
Walks 2.1 / 1.9 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
DET
LAA
DET
ML
59% 96-66
54% 86-73
55% 89-73
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 97-65
64% 101-58
51% 82-80
57% 91-69
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 69-81-9
52% 82-75-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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