Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Nationals CLE @ WSH

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

20-14  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, May 6 • 3:40 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

16-19  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Joey Cantillo
STARTING PITCHER

Joey Cantillo

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Joey Cantillo None-None 2.08 -- 1.0 1
Jake Irvin None-None 3.94 -- 5.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.08 Ldr ERA 3.94
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
63%
📊
NATIONALS
37%
GUARDIANS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

57.0%

Nationals Cover

43.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.4%

CLE By 3-4 runs

15.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.0%

WSH By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.23
CLEVELAND
3.52
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
CLEVELAND
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 27, 2026 WSH @ CLE 2 - 3
May 26, 2026 WSH @ CLE 6 - 3
May 25, 2026 WSH @ CLE 10 - 2
May 7, 2025 CLE @ WSH 8 - 6
May 6, 2025 CLE @ WSH 9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.696
OPS
▲ .744
162
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +77.2% more
Cleveland: 1.5 vs Washington: 0.3
Home Runs (L5) +11.7% more
Cleveland: 1.0 vs Washington: 0.9
Home Runs (Season) +29.6% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Strikeouts (L5) +25.4% more
Washington: 9.2 vs Cleveland: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.2 9
WSH Score 3.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.2 / 7.5 10.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 7.3 1.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 11.5 16.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.4 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CLE
WSH
CLE
ML
57% 92-69
54% 87-74
54% 87-74
49% 80-82
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-68
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 88-71-2
42% 65-90-6
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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