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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

19-15  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, May 6 • 7:05 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

16-18  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Englert
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Englert

#59 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 5.14 -- 1.0 1
Mason Englert None-None 6.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
5.14 Ldr ERA 6.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
59%
📊
RAYS
41%
PHILLIES --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

64.2%

Rays Cover

35.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

15.1%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.49
PHILADELPHIA
3.04
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 TB @ PHI 3 - 7
Sep 26, 2026 TB @ PHI 12 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 TB @ PHI 2 - 0
May 8, 2025 PHI @ TB 7 - 6
May 7, 2025 PHI @ TB 7 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724
OPS
▲ .728
3
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +73.7% more
Philadelphia: 2.1 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +53.5% more
Philadelphia: 9.6 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Total Bases (L5) +41.3% more
Philadelphia: 18.9 vs Tampa Bay: 11.1
Errors (L5) +30.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5 vs Tampa Bay: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.5 8
TB Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 10.7 6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 2.1 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 4.5 / 9.6 5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 18.9 10.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.3 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PHI
TB
PHI
ML
58% 95-68
59% 97-67
58% 95-68
49% 80-84
ATS
60% 97-66
65% 107-57
55% 90-73
51% 83-81
TTL
47% 73-81-9
57% 88-67-9
51% 78-75-10
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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