Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Royals CHW @ KC

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

10-25  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, May 6 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

20-16  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Sean Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Burke

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Burke None-None 4.35 -- 6.1 2
Seth Lugo None-None 2.84 -- 6.2 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.35 ERA Ldr 2.84
-- WHIP --
6.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.2
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
24%
📊
ROYALS
76%
WHITE SOX --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Kansas City)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

30.1%

Royals Cover

69.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CHW By 1-2 runs

13.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

KC By 3-4 runs

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.58
CHICAGO
4.67
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
C
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CHW @ KC 9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Kansas City KC
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826 ▲
OPS
.718
1
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16900.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +185.0% more
Kansas City: 2.1 vs Chicago: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +105.6% more
Kansas City: 18.4 vs Chicago: 8.9
Hits (L5) +41.2% more
Kansas City: 9.9 vs Chicago: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 2.6 3
KC Score 4.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.9 / 7.0 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 6.9 5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 18.4 / 8.9 12.0 / 10.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.7 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHW
KC
CHW
ML
55% 89-72
49% 81-86
56% 90-70
56% 94-73
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 99-68
58% 93-67
56% 93-74
TTL
58% 90-64-7
58% 96-69-2
54% 83-70-7
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 39 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 46 minutes ago
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 13 hours ago
MLB Division Series: All Four Could End Today for First Time Sin…
si 1 day, 13 hours ago
Sean Burke's Relief Masterclass Puts White Sox on Brink of ALCS
yahoo 1 day, 19 hours ago