Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Angels TOR @ LAA

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

16-18  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, May 6 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

13-20  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Mason Fluharty
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Fluharty

#68 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Fluharty None-None 1.93 -- 1.0 1
Jose Fermin None-None 11.25 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.93 Ldr ERA 11.25
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
58%
📊
ANGELS
42%
BLUE JAYS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

70.0%

Angels Cover

30.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.5%

TOR By 3-4 runs

18.6%

LAA By 1-2 runs

13.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.7
TORONTO
1.6
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 10, 2026 LAA @ TOR 6 - 1
May 9, 2026 LAA @ TOR 1 - 14
May 8, 2026 LAA @ TOR 0 - 2
Apr 22, 2026 TOR @ LAA 3 - 7
Apr 21, 2026 TOR @ LAA 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.381 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.692 ▲
OPS
.679
152
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +39.3% more
Toronto: 4.5 vs Los Angeles: 2.7
Home Runs (L5) +31.0% more
Toronto: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +25.9% more
Toronto: 9.1 vs Los Angeles: 6.8
Total Bases (L5) +18.0% more
Toronto: 11.8 vs Los Angeles: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.7 3
LAA Score 1.6 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 7.6 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 9.1 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 11.8 18.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
TOR
LAA
TOR
ML
59% 96-66
46% 74-87
55% 89-73
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 90-71
51% 82-80
49% 79-81
TTL
53% 83-74-5
51% 80-76-5
52% 82-75-5
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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