Home / MLB Projections MLB / Phillies @ Rays PHI @ TB

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

20-15  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, May 7 • 7:05 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

16-19  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Cristopher Sanchez
STARTING PITCHER

Cristopher Sanchez

#61 | Starting Pitcher
@
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cristopher Sanchez None-None 2.89 -- 6.0 5
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 2.03 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.89 ERA Ldr 2.03
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
61%
📊
RAYS
39%
PHILLIES --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

70.0%

Rays Cover

30.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.5%

PHI By 3-4 runs

18.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

13.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.03
PHILADELPHIA
2.93
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 TB @ PHI 3 - 7
Sep 26, 2026 TB @ PHI 12 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 TB @ PHI 2 - 0
May 8, 2025 PHI @ TB 7 - 6
May 7, 2025 PHI @ TB 7 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724
OPS
▲ .728
3
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +70.5% more
Philadelphia: 2.4 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5) +55.3% more
Philadelphia: 10.4 vs Tampa Bay: 4.7
Total Bases (L5) +47.1% more
Philadelphia: 20.3 vs Tampa Bay: 10.7
Hits (L5) +31.5% more
Philadelphia: 11.5 vs Tampa Bay: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.0 7
TB Score 2.9 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 11.5 2.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 2.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 4.7 / 10.4 9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 20.3 2.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PHI
TB
PHI
ML
58% 95-68
59% 97-67
58% 95-68
49% 80-84
ATS
60% 97-66
65% 107-57
55% 90-73
51% 83-81
TTL
47% 73-81-9
57% 88-67-9
51% 78-75-10
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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